ColbyCosh.com

In all seriousness, I think you've forgotten the local perception as to the impact of Souray and Penner on September 1.

Yeah, maybe that should read "Anybody sensible".

I'm sure there are issues one can take with the methodology, but this guy gives them at a 17.4% chance to get in as it stands today, so that's actually a little better than 1 in 6.

The late charge of the Oilers towards a playoff spot actually makes me sad and angry (insofar as I invest any emotion in a bunch of millionaries playing pond hockey for the masses).

Because even if the team even comes close and doesn't make the playoffs by a point or two, this late-season charge will guarantee that Lowe and MacT save their jobs for at least one more season, ensuring continued mediocrity from the team until they are removed and replaced.

Because even if the team even comes close and doesn't make the playoffs by a point or two, this late-season charge will guarantee that Lowe and MacT save their jobs for at least one more season, ensuring continued mediocrity from the team until they are removed and replaced.

I second that emotion, at least with our GM.

Is this what Kevin Lowe meant when he said "expect the unexpected?"

I must be the only person in the Oilersphere who believes that Lowe and MacT are both well above average at their positions relative to the rest of the NHL.

Everyone used to say MacT couldn't coach a rookie. Please excuse yourselves from the discussion until the Oilers no longer have three of the top ten rookies in league scoring.

Everyone used to say that Lowe/MacT were complete bone-heads for believing that Conklin had the personal make-up to succeed in the NHL (despite his woeful pinarama playing style). Please excuse yourselves from the conversation until Conklin no longer holds the league-leading GAA.

There might be a few better GMs and a few better coaches, but I'm not convinced Edmonton could land one. The best are otherwise currently engaged.

The picks Lowe gave up for Penner were actually becoming a problem as much as an asset. Has anyone else noticed there was a bit of pile-up in prospects graduating from the Oiler farm system? How many more 18-year-olds can this team realistically absorb?

Contrary to what many fans believe, running your team into the ground to achieve a top pick is not a good way to build for the future (excepting Pittsburgh, which was as much luck as good management). Running your season into the ground is a great way to wind up with great players who have never experienced the culture of winning. Apart from Ottawa's cup in 2004/2005, the Senators and the Oilers have the same number of Stanley Cup appearances over the last decade. Yeah, right, all it takes is one more Alfredsson and success is guaranteed.

I have to disagree with Colby somewhat on his statistical inference. If the Oilers make the playoffs, they'll be entering off a stretch-run in the vicinity of 18-2-1. Such a feat implies one or more goalies have entered the zone, among other things.

If you were Detroit with home ice in the first round, facing a team with a red-hot goaltender entering the playoffs on an 18-2-1 stretch drive, against a coach that won the more-with-less chess game once before, would you feel "favoured" to win the first round series? I'm not so sure at that point the #8 seed is the overwhelming consideration.

Mathematically, what I'm saying is that the odds of making the playoffs and the performance they achieve within the playoffs are not necessarily independent variables.

If the Oilers do make the playoffs, it will be off one of the flukiest, er, I mean best, playoff stretch drives in NHL history. I eyeballed this the other night and put their chances at about 10%. Against their favour, the loser-point candy dish they love to pass around might finally come back to bite them.

Conklin going somewhere else and succeeding spectacularly under other coaching is not exactly the strongest defence of this front office. Your other points are good though. Right now MacT should get credit for creating a good atmosphere in the dressing room, Lowe's Tarnstrom-for-Glencross move looks like a steal, and Gagner, Cogliano, and Gilbert are collectively more than justifying their draft seedings.

Apart from Ottawa's cup in 2004/2005, the Senators and the Oilers have the same number of Stanley Cup appearances over the last decade.