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Parental advisory: explicit lyrics.
LEGEND: "Option price" is the current amount Hollywood Stock Exchange bidders are willing to pay for an option that cashes out at $25 if the named movie wins and $0 if it loses. "Probability", in the last column, is simply that first figure divided by the $25 return on a victory--it should, in principle, represent the market's collective guess as to the probability of a win in the category. Probability figures will not necessarily add to 100%, and the totals may, in fact, be ten points or so north or south of unity. That's an arbitrage opportunity for the crafty stock purchaser... - Ed.

Nominee Opt'n Price Prob.
PICTURE
Chicago 16.70 67%
The Hours 1.62 6%
Gangs of New York 1.36 5%
The Two Towers 1.62 6%
The Pianist 2.27 9%
DIRECTOR
Almodovar/Talk to Her 1.23 5%
Daldry/Hours 2.01 8%
Marshall/Chicago 1.36 5%
Polanski/Pianist 2.66 11%
Scorsese/Gangs of NY 15.92 64%
ACTOR
Brody/Pianist 1.49 6%
Cage/Adaptation 0.71 3%
Caine/Quiet American 1.75 7%
Day-Lewis/Gangs of NY 11.76 47%
Nicholson/About Schmidt 13.71 55%
ACTRESS
Hayek/Frida 1.49 6%
Kidman/Hours 15.27 61%
Lane/Unfaithful 1.75 7%
Moore/Far From Heaven 2.14 9%
Zellweger/Chicago 1.88 8%
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Cooper/Adaptation 14.10 56%
Harris/Hours 1.23 5%
Newman/Road to Perdition 1.75 7%
Reilly/Chicago 1.23 5%
Walken/Catch Me If You Can 2.79 11%
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bates/About Schmidt 1.10 4%
Latifah/Chicago 1.23 5%
Moore/Hours 6.04 24%
Streep/Adaptation 3.44 14%
Zeta-Jones/Chicago 10.98 44%
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Far From Heaven 2.01 8%
Gangs of New York 1.23 5%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 14.62 58%
Talk to Her 1.88 8%
Y Tu Mama Tambien 1.75 7%
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
About a Boy 2.01 8%
Adaptation 11.11 44%
Chicago 3.44 14%
The Hours 1.62 6%
The Pianist 1.49 6%
ANIMATED FEATURE
Ice Age 13.58 54%
Lilo & Stitch 0.71 3%
Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron 1.36 5%
Spirited Away 11.11 44%
Treasure Planet 1.23 5%

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